The Post Dispatch Weighs In on Papal Election

If the conclave that opens April 18 elects a non-European, the choice will be viewed as historic evidence that the Roman Catholic Church has embraced a developing world where its membership is growing most.

A new pope long in years will be dismissed as a transitional figure. A staunch conservative will be seen as locking in Rome's recent insistence on doctrinal conformity, a liberal as the herald of change to come.

Yet the pattern of recent papacies suggests that the predictions and speculation will almost certainly be wrong.

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